Music falls into place

Back - Index - Submissions - - What is RSS? Date: Sep 01, 2000 Source: USA Today Submitted By: Gina By Edna Gundersen, USA TODAY If Y2K hasn't felt entirely A-OK for music, there's a fallback: fall. The music industry is set to unleash crowd-pleasing fare to cash in on pre-holiday buying fever. "Traditionally, a record company's year is made in the fourth quarter," says David Adelson, music correspondent/producer for the E! channel. "Records released in the holiday buying season generally will sell substantially more than the same record would any other time. Every other season pales by comparison. Companies hold back the big guns and then fire away in the fall ." Records by Madonna, U2, the Backstreet Boys, Ricky Martin and Limp Bizkit are expected to explode out of the gate. The commercial potential of others — the Spice Girls, Joan Osborne, Paul Simon — is difficult to predict. And fringe elements, even critical favorites saturated in hype, might be trampled into oblivion as fans rush toward household names. The biggest showdown could be between pinup acts Martin and the Backstreet Boys, leaders in the teen-pop rage that fans seem unlikely to outgrow in the near future. Don't look for a fall guy, though. "The loser still gets to be monumental," Adelson says. "These two are stirring massive anticipation. The consensus in the industry is that Backstreet will sell more initially, but that would in no way detract from Ricky's sales performance, which will be huge. It's hard to say whether either can break 'N Sync's first-week record. It's an unfair barometer." In March, 'N Sync's No Strings Attached sold 2.4 million copies its first week, breaking the record of 1.1 million set by the Backstreet Boys. "Every new release from any act in this camp is an acid test," says Sean Ross, editor of Airplay Monitor, Billboard's radio magazine. "For the past two years, program directors have both been fearing that this wave would run its course and spoiling for it to do so. Britney Spears and 'N Sync seem to have survived that test. There's no reason to think much will change in a few months ." Though bubble-gum likely will dominate the holiday shopping spree, other genres could thrive. "Rather than creating a competition, one big title can draw traffic and sales for smaller titles, feeding a frenzy," Adelson says. Pete Howard, publisher of monthly CD newsletter ICE, foresees strong interest in returning rock acts Radiohead and The Wallflowers, but suspects Green Day, which "may be almost passé by now," is facing an uphill battle. "I think The Wallflowers have a surprising amount of momentum left" after 1996's Bringing Down the Horse, Howard says. "They seem to hit all the bases for commercial and critical approval. They'll get the benefit of the doubt and won't have to re-prove themselves. Radiohead, still very strong off the success of OK Computer, also should do well." Adelson offers a caveat: "Radiohead is the No. 1 priority in the fourth quarter for Capitol Records, and the band has a huge following and massive critical acceptance. But as Oasis has shown, it doesn't mean you have a smash album every time. If there's one thing certain about rock in the current marketplace, it's that nothing is certain." That means cautious predictions for pop-rock returnees such as Barenaked Ladies and Fastball, who shot to instant stardom with catchy hit singles One Week and The Way, respectively. "They will have to fight for everything they get," Ross says. Each act's new single is "growing nicely this week, but neither of those songs are slam-dunks yet. Nobody thought Fastball would have a second hit with Out of My Head. For that reason, they could have a third. A lot of these acts were expected to be one-hit wonders, and they've already defied that expectation. Still, nobody is guaranteed anything at top 40." "You're only as good as your latest single," says Adelson. "That's how long momentum lasts. If your single is not reacting, the momentum is shot." Exceptions tend to crop up only for exceptional artists on the cusp of a cultural shift. Just as Nirvana and a wave of Seattle grunge bands invaded the charts in reaction against hair bands of the '80s, a dark horse could steal teen-pop thunder. British singer/songwriter David Gray's White Ladder, released in March, is generating the kind of grass-roots support that could erupt into media attention, Adelson notes. "This could bring back the singer/songwriter in a reaction against teen pop," he says. "We're seeing jumps at retail, and radio isn't even playing it yet." Rappers Silkk the Shocker and Xzibit seem poised for big sales, thanks to the continuing appetite for hardcore rap. The surge of popular women rockers stoked by Lilith Fair seems to be waning, spelling a shaky return for the likes of Joan Osborne. "The pop marketplace moves so fast that if you take three years to make an album, you're going to have to prove yourself all over again," Howard says. On the other hand, veterans who have weathered fads and remained artistically vital won't be forced into retirement by teen superstars. Van Morrison, who returns to sing blues and country covers in an unlikely pairing with the sister of Jerry Lee Lewis, "is no longer driven by chart action or airplay, yet he has a built-in audience," Howard says. "He's perceived as an artist who improves with age. His stature seems to edge up every few years." A glance at a few of fall's noteworthy submissions: Madonna "Madonna is a pretty solid bet," Howard says. "That's the story that continues to amaze us all, decade in and decade out. She still appeals to a wide age group, still has her credibility intact and does not appear in the least to be a trend follower. When the dust settles, Madonna will be practically unique in pop music." Title track Music has cracked the top 10 at top 40 radio, which "usually ends up supporting her at least on the first single," Ross says. "All signs look good." Adelson sees a repeat pattern: "Every time Madonna puts out an album, it's an event. Everyone's saying, 'She's managed to keep it musically fresh. She's done it again.'" U2 "U2 is coming back with a real pivotal album," Howard says. "This is the last great rock band that hasn't taken a severe fall yet. R.E.M. was humbled to death. Smashing Pumpkins lost all their momentum and luster. If (U2) manages to hang on, they will almost be alone in the field. I think the album is an absolute sure bet to arrive at No. 1." U2's success this time "will depend on the mindset of the band," Adelson says. "If U2 has it in their hearts to make a commercial statement, then obviously they'll make a radio-friendly single, agree to a lot of promotion and do what's necessary to create a hit. Some bands, like Pearl Jam, just don't care about the sales side. They do what's necessary to satisfy their artistic needs." Ross, noting that U2 hasn't been an automatic add at top 40 for years, says a mellow comeback could land the band in limbo. "If it's a rocking U2, it's got a shot," he says. "Some program directors have been pulling U2 oldies (off playlists) because they no longer fit next to Papa Roach. They'll be hurting if modern-rock stations feel the music is too soft." The Beatles Though defunct for 30-plus years, The Beatles continue to unearth new scraps and repackage oldies for fresh consumption. A pair of aggressively marketed Anthology sets hijacked the chart, but sales of the upcoming disc of No. 1 hits "will be tough to predict," Howard says. "There's a very mainstream but low-volume consumer for this. It should do very well during the holidays. But there's no urgency. A lot of fans are saying there's nothing new here. So I don't see it blasting out of the box the first week. It's a marathon runner, a record with legs. There's no compelling reason to go buy it now, but it's something everyone needs to have eventually." The bubble-gum brigade The Backstreet Boys, Ricky Martin, 98 Degrees, the Spice Girls and assorted copycats are poised to capitalize on the overabundance of underage pop fans. "The format is still fully in place," Howard says. "The Backstreet Boys are assured a No. 1 debut." Ross adds: "You can bank on Ricky and the Backstreet Boys. Subsequent Ricky singles weren't hits on the magnitude of Livin' la Vida Loca, but his tour was one of summer's hottest attractions. There's still some excitement around him." Whether teen pop acts can endure through a second or third album "is almost a moot point," he says, pointing to the record-setting sales of sophomore albums by Backstreet and 'N Sync. "They nullified any conclusion you could draw about this music. It will be impressive if the Backstreet Boys succeed for a third time." He's less optimistic about the Spice Girls' third whirl. "Clearly radio had developed an attitude about them by the second album. Before the first album ran its course, radio had an attitude, in fact. I'd like to see them get a fair reading, but they didn't get a fair shot on the last one." Comment on this item. Recent Comments Submitted by: Barneyxcq dHO1g7 http://www.LnAJ7K8QSpfMO2wQ8gO.com Submitted by: bezdar1 Submitted by: cirkyl Submitted by: snymrik Comment on this item. Next Item: Backstreet Boy helps heal young hearts Prev Item: Pop Goes The Boy Bands